Online retail advancing into new spheres

RegioData Research presents the preliminary forecasts of online retail and reveals: The short-term “slump” in 2022 does not dictate the future of online commerce – on the contrary, online retail figures are on a steady growth trajectory and are expected to reach new heights soon.

The joy of stationary retailers over the unexpected decline in 2022, when the online share of consumer spending fell for the first time from 16.2% to 14.8%, likely continued in 2023 with a further slight decrease to 14.4%. However, these two years should be seen as temporary exceptions.

Since its inception, online commerce has recorded steady growth rates, always surpassing the respective inflation rate. In 2020, there was a leap to an unprecedented peak in this country: from a 13% online share of retail-relevant consumer spending to 15.6%. An excessive increase fueled, of course, by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2022, there was then a “correction” of this excessive increase, which many mistakenly interpreted as the end of the online success wave. But this is not the case, as the long-term trend clearly points towards new heights.

Already this year, online commerce will reach approximately the level of the previous record year, 2021. Completely new spheres are even envisaged for the coming years.

In terms of new spheres, Temu and Shein are currently causing a stir. Although the two Chinese online pure players have not yet appeared in the existing statistics, they are nevertheless dramatically on the rise. However, it may take some time before they can compete with big players like Amazon, mainly due to legal framework conditions regarding customs. It remains to be seen how much market share they will actually capture.

Even 2023 was just a “hiccup”. Online commerce continues its upward trend, albeit not too rapidly!